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Google Ads Media Planning: How to Build a Realistic Forecast Before Launch

Google Ads Media Planning: How to Build a Realistic Forecast Before Launch

Before launching ads on a client's real budget, I always put together a media plan — a document where I calculate the expected results before the first dollar is spent. It's not a guarantee but a rational estimate based on Keyword Planner data and realistic assumptions.

Here's the structure of such a document, using a real case: an online store selling artificial flowers and plants (Colombia, Spanish-speaking market).

Contents
  1. Key inputs
  2. Scenario forecast
  3. Recommended launch strategy
  4. ⚠️ Warning: technical issues with the website
  5. 📱 A note on WhatsApp conversions
  6. Top keywords (from Keyword Planner)
  7. Conclusion
  8. FAQ

Key inputs

ParameterValue
Monthly budget$1 000
Average CPC (weighted, Keyword Planner data)$0.32
Forecast clicks/month~3 125
Conversion scenarios1% / 1.5% / 2%
Average order value (AOV)$60

Scenario forecast

Metric🔴 Pessimistic (1%)🟡 Baseline (1.5%)🟢 Optimistic (2%)
Monthly budget$1 000$1 000$1 000
Average CPC$0.32$0.32$0.32
Forecast clicks3 1253 1253 125
Conversion rate1.0%1.5%2.0%
Forecast orders/month314763
Cost per order (CPO)$32.26$21.28$15.87
Average order value (AOV)$60$60$60
Revenue forecast$1 860$2 820$3 780
ROAS forecast1.86x2.82x3.78x

Even in the pessimistic scenario the campaign pays for itself — and that's exactly the value of a pre-launch forecast: you see the break-even line at the media planning stage, not after a month of spent budget.

Recommended launch strategy

Month 1 — Search only. I recommend starting with Search campaigns exclusively in the first month. This lets you:

  • collect initial conversion data and real CPC benchmarks;
  • test ad copy and the landing page;
  • build up conversion history before switching to Smart Bidding strategies;
  • identify the best-performing keywords before expanding into Shopping.

Month 2+ — add Google Shopping. Once the site meets Google Merchant Center requirements (see the warning below), Shopping campaigns should run in parallel with Search. This combination usually improves the account's overall performance and reach.

⚠️ Warning: technical issues with the website

At the time of the media plan, the client's site wasn't ready for ad traffic or Merchant Center review.

Minimum requirements for Search campaigns:

  • page speed and Core Web Vitals — especially on mobile (70%+ of traffic in Colombia is mobile);
  • cart/checkout funnel — working, with no errors;
  • GA4 conversion tracking — set up correctly and verified in Google Ads;
  • privacy policy and contact page — required for ad approval.

Additional requirements for Google Shopping:

  • Google Merchant Center account — created and verified;
  • website ownership verified in GMC;
  • product feed — uploaded with no errors in diagnostics;
  • prices on the site must exactly match the feed;
  • shipping and return policies — clearly stated on the site (a GMC requirement);
  • prohibited content check — no policy violations in product listings.

Important: in its current state, the site won't pass Merchant Center review. A separate preparation stage is needed before launching Shopping campaigns. These fixes should be done in parallel during month 1 (while Search is running) so Shopping can be activated in month 2.

📱 A note on WhatsApp conversions

The client actively uses WhatsApp as a sales channel (a live chat widget on the site) — which means some orders, by default, never reach Google Ads or GA4, and reports show worse CPO and ROAS than reality.

This client doesn't have such a solution in place yet — but I already have a ready-made, proven setup for exactly this problem: a click on the messenger button is captured via GTM and passed to the CRM, where a manager confirms the actual deal, and it's sent back to Google Ads as an offline conversion. We'll implement the same setup here. I've described the mechanics and real numbers in a separate article: “How to send orders from messengers and email to Google Ads”.

Top keywords (from Keyword Planner)

KeywordAvg. searches/monthCPC minCPC maxCompetition
flores artificiales2 400$0.08$0.67High
plantas artificiales1 300$0.05$0.60High
enredadera artificial720$0.07$0.38High
árbol de cerezo artificial480$0.05$0.42High
rosas artificiales390$0.05$0.53High
planta artificial390$0.03$0.60High
árboles artificiales320$0.07$0.57High
plantas artificiales decorativas260$0.05$0.57High
tulipanes artificiales170$0.04$0.57High
palmera artificial110$0.05$0.48High

Data period: May 2025 – April 2026. Geo: Colombia.

Conclusion

A media plan isn't a promise of results; it's a rational starting point. It immediately shows the client how much an order will really cost under different conversion scenarios, which technical barriers need to be removed before launch, and which measurement nuances (like WhatsApp) will distort reporting if they aren't accounted for in advance.

When a client sees three realistic scenarios with ROAS before a single cent of budget is spent, expectations immediately become rational instead of “make me a profit in 7 days”.

Why I base forecasts on average market figures rather than my best cases — see the example of AC repair: 10% forecast, 24% actual.

Search volumes, seasonality and bids for your media plan are available in the free keyword research tool.

Related services
Google Ads consultation Your specific question worked through on Zoom or Google Meet: performance drops, conversions, launch strategy. $50 / hourLearn more Google Ads management Full cycle: campaigns, analytics, CRM integration and reporting on real sales, not in-platform conversions. from $450 / monthLearn more
Need a realistic media plan before launching your project? Get in touch

FAQ on the topic

Frequently asked questions

Why do you need a media plan before launching Google Ads?
To get a realistic picture of expected results before spending the budget: how much an order will cost, what ROAS you can realistically expect, and what needs fixing on the website before launch.
What if the client can't tell you their average order value (AOV)?
Without AOV you can't forecast revenue or ROAS — only clicks, orders and cost per order. Always ask for this number before finalizing the media plan.
Why start with Search instead of going straight to Shopping?
Search gives you your first conversion data and real CPCs, and lets you test ads and the landing page without depending on whether the product feed is ready. Shopping launches in parallel once Merchant Center is ready.
Why is it important to account for conversions from WhatsApp or other messengers in advance?
Without a dedicated solution, these leads never reach Google Ads or GA4, so reports show a worse CPO and a lower ROAS than reality. Discuss this with the client before setting KPIs.
Does a media plan guarantee the forecast will come true?
No. A media plan is a rational estimate based on Keyword Planner data and realistic assumptions, not a promise of results. Actual numbers may differ depending on site quality, seasonality and competition.



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